BRICS in Goa: Pakistan will be very much the flavour of the summit.
As the host to the BRICS summit in Goa this weekend India will lay out the red carpet for the leaders of the group which was once seen to consist of the five emerging economies. Now, with the Brazilian and South African economies in slow motion, Russia struggling and China and India not growing as they earlier were, the grouping’s economic strength has taken a beating.
Despite this, the West still watches the moves made by BRICS warily and follows its announcements very carefully, especially since the substantive part of the summits have been political in nature in the recent years.
The summit declarations have gotten longer – the Ufa declaration was more than 70 paragraphs long — and have increasingly dwelt on topical political issues.
Since India is hosting the summit, it has invited countries from its eastern neighbourhood – under the umbrella of BIMSTEC that includes Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bhutan and Nepal – for an outreach with the BRICS leaders. Begun at the summit in Fortaleza 2014, this practice was adhered by Russia in Ufa in 2015, when the host called leaders from the countries in the region. So, Brazil had called the Latin American countries in Fortaleza for an outreach with the BRICS leaders (that was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first multi-lateral outing), and Russia had called the central Asian and countries part of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation).
However, since Pakistan was seen as a spoiler in the region, India decided to exclude them from the regional outreach, one reason being it wanted to avoid the inevitable China-Pakistan axis at the BRICS summit. This was much before a majority of the SAARC countries decided to pull out of the SAARC summit in Islamabad, forcing its postponement.
Instead, India called the neighbours in the east – under the rubric of its Act-East policy.
But there is no doubt that the Pakistan factor will definitely loom large over the BRICS summit – especially after the surgical strikes in the post-Uri attack phase. India is cautious in not making the mistake of putting Pakistan at the fore of the agenda but through the arc of terrorism it will ensure that all countries from BRICS and BIMSTEC are on the same page.
It will be interesting to see how China responds to Delhi’s moves as they are Islamabad’s all-weather friends.
As a commentator in Goa rightly observed, “Whatever gathering the South Asia region may host, be it SAARC or BRICS or BIMSTEC, the India-Pakistan equation is always bound to play on everyone’s minds.”
In current times, India is one of the most important players in Brics — a group made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
The reason is that India is seen as a bright spot in a bloc whose clout has been undermined by economic woes.
Brics was formed in 2006 with the aim of using its growing economic and political influence to challenge Western hegemony. The nations, with a joint estimated GDP of $16 trillion, set up their own bank in parallel to the Washington-based International Monetary Fund and World Bank and hold summits rivalling the G7 forum. But the countries, accounting for 53 percent of world population, have been hit by falling global demand and lower commodity prices, while several have also been mired in corruption scandals.
Russia and Brazil have fallen into recession recently, South Africa only just managed to avoid the same fate last month while China's economy — the recent engine of world growth — has slowed sharply.
India by contrast is now the world's fastest-growing major economy in an otherwise gloomy environment and its GDP is expected to grow 7.6 percent in 2016-17.
Here is what we can expect from the 8th Brics Summit on 15 and 16 October in Goa:
According to the Brics 2016 website, the theme of India's Brics chairmanship is Building, Responsive, Inclusive andCollective Solutions.
India has adopted a five-pronged approach for the Summit which is called 'IIIIC' or 'I4C', which stands forInstitution building (to improve and institutionalise Brics cooperation), Implementation (of the decisions taken in previous summits), Integrating (integration of current cooperation mechanisms), Innovation (new cooperation mechanisms) and Continuity (keeping up with the existing mechanisms).
India has adopted a five-pronged approach for the Summit which is called 'IIIIC' or 'I4C', which stands forInstitution building (to improve and institutionalise Brics cooperation), Implementation (of the decisions taken in previous summits), Integrating (integration of current cooperation mechanisms), Innovation (new cooperation mechanisms) and Continuity (keeping up with the existing mechanisms).
IANS also reported that Indian foreign ministry official Amar Sinha said the leaders would debate "global growth prospects, the role of Brics in leading this global growth and our contributions to it". He also confirmed regional security and climate change were on the agenda while Russia is expecting talks on Syria.
President Vladimir Putin's office said in a statement that "international terrorism and the Syria peace process" would be discussed as Moscow faces international anger over its airstrikes in support of the Assad regime.
China's Vice Foreign Minister Li Baodong meanwhile said the leaders would "exchange in-depth views on Brics cooperation and other global and regional issues", according to state news agency Xinhua.
Some of the more substantive talks are expected at bilaterals on the sidelines of the summit in the tourist state of Goa, with Modi expected to separately meet China's President Xi Jinping and Putin.
Brazil's new President Michel Temer, who replaced impeached Dilma Rousseff, will look to such meetings to boost trade ties and help drag his country out of its worst recession in half a century.
The summit comes amid some scepticism about the future of Brics, especially given India's efforts to reach out to the US and Europe since Modi — a one-time pariah of the West — came to power in 2014.
India will also be looking for Brics to condemn recent cross-border attacks blamed on militants in Pakistan that have spiked tensions between the neighbours, according to local media.
Analysts, however, are sceptical of India's chances of securing a joint condemnation given China's strong diplomatic support for Pakistan and Russia's efforts to forge closer defence ties with Islamabad.
"Agenda is drawn in a broad-brush manner. We will be looking at global economic and political situation. Obviously terrorism is very important part of that," Amar Sinha said.
Though he said the issue of China blocking ban of Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar by the UN will not be taken up at Brics because it was a bilateral issue with China and India does not want to bring such issues to the multilateral fora, he asserted that general principles pertaining to terrorism will be forcefully taken up.
And that will include "terrorism which is a global problem. It cannot be tackled individually and has to be tackled collectively. We cannot have a differential policy towards terrorism. There is no good terrorist or bad terrorist. So, these are the issues on which there will reiteration of national positions," Sinha said.
He added that "there would be very strong paragraphs (in the Brics outcome document) on terrorism including how to deal with countries that provide sanctuaries and safe havens... At NSA-level meet, we have also actually shifted the goalpost a little by talking about not only sources of finances but also sources from where they (terrorists) get arms and ammunition. These will be reflected in the Brics discussions."
Modi will have nearly 10 bilaterals. He will meet Putin on Saturday for the annual summit and the talks with Xi Jinping are expected to be held later that day. His summit with Brazilian president Michel Temer is scheduled for Monday. Bilateral meetings will see India exploring ways to enhance cooperation in key areas of security, defence, energy and investments, officials said.
Modi will also have talks with Prime Ministers of Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. He will also have a bilateral with State Counsellor of Myanmar Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who is arriving in India on October 16 on her first visit to the country after assuming the office.
During the Modi-Putin meeting, key issues of defence, security, civil nuclear cooperation, trade and investment are expected to dominate the talks.
China will also call upon the group to make the bloc a free trade area and initiate measures to liberalise trade. "Observers have focused their eyes on New Delhi and have one question in mind: How much courage will it take for the trade ministers from Brics countries gathering there on Thursday for the summit meeting to promote greater cooperation?" an article in the state-run Global Times had said.
"It seems China is willing to open up its domestic markets to the other four member countries, but they haven't yet made quite the same commitment," it said.
However, as this article in Business Standard says, as a result of the fears of Chinese goods flooding the markets, a consensus has not been reached on China's suggestion for a Brics FTa.
